December 13
Porter Fork road,
Paradice-Raymond Glade, Raymond shoulder
Elevations, slope angles and aspects
6200-9600', angles over 35°, north, east and west facing aspects.
Snow conditions
3" recent snow over a variable base.
Lower elevations are lacking. I skinned and walked a bit on the exit.
Paradice is bushy in the runout, upper is sandbox snow, unsupportable in places on the up.
Raymond glade is exposed to wind and was more supportable.
Descent was mostly supportable with occasional herky jerky.
There is a rain crust under the recent snow which varies in strength and thickness. Fragile and thin up high, thicker and supportable, lower.
The layer under the crust is very weak, small facets. Ski cut sluffs would run on the crust, gouging through as they ran into older layering.
Weather
Overcast skies, moderate temperatures, occasional gusty wind on the ridge to 15 or so mph.
Snow pit
Evaluation
Weak faceted snow with good stability. Surface sluffing.
Weather guessers are now suggesting up to 3' new snow by mid week so...
I'd expect increasing instability with load. Water weight over an inch could produce full depth avalanching, especially in upper elevation drifted locations.
Terrain anchors(weeds and brush) will probably limit instability at lower elevations however, would expect widespread collapse with significant load.
The wild card:
because the rain crust-facet weakness is so pronounced, it may avalanche early in the cycle allowing significant load on older layering.
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